Bayesian reasoning

Definition

Bayesian reasoning updates how confident you should be in a belief as evidence arrives: start from how likely it was beforehand, then shift in proportion to how strongly the new evidence favors it over the alternatives. Neither the starting rate nor the new clue settles it alone — the skill is combining them.

Memory hook

“New evidence moves the needle — from wherever it already stood.”

What it sounds like

• Given how rare that is to begin with…
• That changes the odds.
• I'd have said unlikely before; after seeing this, likelier — but still not likely.