When cause goes wrong: causal fallacies

Definition

Three further ways causal reasoning fails. Correlation-implies-causation treats two things that move together as if one drove the other, forgetting coincidence, reverse cause, and common causes. The single-cause fallacy crowns one contributor as the whole story of a complex outcome. The slippery slope insists one step must end in catastrophe without arguing a single link of the chain.

Memory hook

“A cause needs a mechanism, its co-causes counted, and every link argued.”

What it sounds like

• The two rise together, so one must drive the other. (correlation as causation)
• The real reason is simply X — nothing else need enter into it. (single cause)
• Allow this today, and before long everything is lost. (slippery slope)